Estimated talent playoff odds
American League
Team | W-L GB PO% | TAL AV | Mx Mn | RW RL Div WC
Athletics | 18-16 -- 62.9 |.505 82.9 | 106 56 | 64.9 63.1 46.6 16.3
Mariners | 17-19 2.0 34.8 |.498 79.4 | 104 54 | 62.4 63.6 18.1 16.7
Rangers | 16-18 2.0 32.6 |.489 78.9 | 102 54 | 62.9 65.1 17.0 15.7
Astros | 14-22 5.0 28.4 |.512 78.5 | 103 52 | 64.5 61.5 14.2 14.3
Angels | 13-23 6.0 9.0 |.481 73.7 | 101 50 | 60.7 65.3 4.2 4.9
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Tigers | 18-18 -- 66.6 |.524 84.1 | 108 60 | 66.1 59.9 41.6 25.1
Guardians | 18-18 -- 44.2 |.496 80.6 | 108 56 | 62.6 63.4 21.2 23.0
White Sox | 17-18 0.5 42.1 |.503 80.3 | 105 55 | 63.3 63.7 19.0 23.1
Royals | 16-19 1.5 28.5 |.494 78.6 | 102 54 | 62.6 64.4 10.3 18.2
Twins | 15-20 2.5 21.4 |.494 76.9 | 102 52 | 61.9 65.1 7.9 13.5
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Yankees | 24-11 -- 98.8 |.555 94.5 | 118 71 | 70.5 56.5 89.0 9.7
Rays | 22-12 1.5 56.4 |.472 82.1 | 105 58 | 60.1 67.9 6.7 49.7
Blue Jays | 16-19 8.0 37.6 |.505 79.7 | 105 55 | 63.7 63.3 2.5 35.1
Red Sox | 14-21 10.0 21.2 |.501 77.6 | 102 52 | 63.6 63.4 1.1 20.0
Orioles | 15-20 9.0 15.6 |.485 76.1 | 99 52 | 61.1 65.9 0.7 14.9
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National League
Team | W-L GB PO% | TAL AV | Mx Mn | RW RL Div WC
Dodgers | 22-13 -- 94.5 |.554 92.3 | 116 68 | 70.3 56.7 77.1 17.4
Padres | 20-14 1.5 63.7 |.514 85.1 | 111 60 | 65.1 62.9 20.2 43.5
Diamondbacks | 16-17 5.0 13.6 |.478 77.5 | 101 55 | 61.5 67.5 1.7 11.9
Giants | 14-21 8.0 5.3 |.478 74.1 | 99 48 | 60.1 66.9 0.7 4.6
Rockies | 14-22 8.5 3.8 |.476 73.7 | 97 50 | 59.7 66.3 0.4 3.4
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Cubs | 23-12 -- 87.5 |.532 89.9 | 115 66 | 66.9 60.1 53.9 33.6
Cardinals | 21-14 2.0 61.2 |.507 84.7 | 109 61 | 63.7 63.3 19.4 41.8
Pirates | 19-16 4.0 49.1 |.514 83.3 | 107 60 | 64.3 62.7 12.1 37.0
Brewers | 18-16 4.5 37.7 |.507 81.9 | 106 59 | 63.9 64.1 7.6 30.1
Reds | 20-15 3.0 36.0 |.496 81.9 | 106 59 | 61.9 65.1 7.0 29.0
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Braves | 25-11 -- 97.7 |.549 94.0 | 118 66 | 69.0 57.0 94.4 3.3
Marlins | 16-19 8.5 16.8 |.492 78.2 | 101 56 | 62.2 64.8 2.1 14.7
Nationals | 16-19 8.5 13.8 |.484 77.4 | 101 53 | 61.4 65.6 1.6 12.3
Phillies | 15-20 9.5 13.2 |.494 77.2 | 100 51 | 62.2 64.8 1.4 11.8
Mets | 13-22 11.5 6.1 |.494 74.9 | 99 49 | 61.9 65.1 0.6 5.5
Talent-based postseason advancement odds
American League
Team | W-L GB Make DS LCS WS Champ
Athletics | 18-16 -- 62.9 44.0 21.5 9.7 4.2
Mariners | 17-19 2.0 34.8 21.0 9.7 4.3 1.7
Rangers | 16-18 2.0 32.6 19.3 8.5 3.5 1.3
Astros | 14-22 5.0 28.4 17.4 8.5 4.0 1.8
Angels | 13-23 6.0 9.0 4.9 2.1 0.8 0.3
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Tigers | 18-18 -- 66.6 48.9 25.8 12.9 6.0
Guardians | 18-18 -- 44.2 28.0 12.9 5.5 2.2
White Sox | 17-18 0.5 42.1 26.7 12.8 5.6 2.4
Royals | 16-19 1.5 28.5 16.6 7.5 3.2 1.3
Twins | 15-20 2.5 21.4 12.1 5.5 2.3 0.9
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Yankees | 24-11 -- 98.8 94.1 58.3 36.3 19.9
Rays | 22-12 1.5 56.4 29.1 10.8 4.3 1.6
Blue Jays | 16-19 8.0 37.6 20.0 8.7 4.2 1.9
Red Sox | 14-21 10.0 21.2 10.6 4.6 2.2 0.9
Orioles | 15-20 9.0 15.6 7.3 3.0 1.3 0.5
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National League
Team | W-L GB Make DS LCS WS Champ
Dodgers | 22-13 -- 94.5 79.2 45.0 25.2 14.5
Padres | 20-14 1.5 63.7 37.0 16.7 7.5 3.6
Diamondbacks | 16-17 5.0 13.6 5.9 2.3 0.9 0.4
Giants | 14-21 8.0 5.3 2.3 0.9 0.3 0.1
Rockies | 14-22 8.5 3.8 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.1
-----
Cubs | 23-12 -- 87.5 63.9 32.3 15.9 8.5
Cardinals | 21-14 2.0 61.2 35.3 15.4 6.8 3.1
Pirates | 19-16 4.0 49.1 26.9 12.1 5.5 2.7
Brewers | 18-16 4.5 37.7 19.6 8.5 3.7 1.7
Reds | 20-15 3.0 36.0 18.1 7.4 3.1 1.4
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Braves | 25-11 -- 97.7 87.9 50.0 27.4 15.5
Marlins | 16-19 8.5 16.8 7.7 3.1 1.3 0.5
Nationals | 16-19 8.5 13.8 6.0 2.3 0.9 0.4
Phillies | 15-20 9.5 13.2 5.9 2.3 1.0 0.4
Mets | 13-22 11.5 6.1 2.7 1.1 0.4 0.2
American League
Team | TAL xRF xRA HIT+ hRV PIT- pRV BsR Def | xW PO% | W-L GB RF RA
Yankees | .555 195 139 124 37.6 92 12.5 0.7 5.0 | 94.5 98.8 | 24-11 -- 192 116
Tigers | .524 189 165 117 27.4 97 4.8 0.3 -8.1 | 84.1 66.6 | 18-18 -- 162 145
Astros | .512 183 171 114 22.6 107 -11.3 -1.0 1.6 | 78.5 28.4 | 14-22 5.0 181 209
Blue Jays | .505 142 137 93 -11.0 96 6.3 -3.5 13.1 | 79.7 37.6 | 16-19 8.0 144 162
Athletics | .505 161 156 106 9.1 102 -3.0 -0.1 -1.1 | 82.9 62.9 | 18-16 -- 149 159
White Sox | .503 164 161 105 7.8 102 -3.1 -0.8 -0.6 | 80.3 42.1 | 17-18 0.5 150 159
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Red Sox | .501 155 154 97 -4.7 108 -12.5 3.1 15.5 | 77.6 21.2 | 14-21 10.0 135 153
Mariners | .498 172 175 107 11.3 101 -1.6 -0.2 -11.8 | 79.4 34.8 | 17-19 2.0 148 145
Guardians | .496 150 154 95 -8.1 99 1.6 -3.0 5.7 | 80.6 44.2 | 18-18 -- 148 155
Twins | .494 157 163 99 -1.6 102 -3.1 2.1 -3.3 | 76.9 21.4 | 15-20 2.5 165 170
Royals | .494 153 160 97 -4.7 106 -9.4 1.2 6.6 | 78.6 28.5 | 16-19 1.5 146 159
Rangers | .489 143 154 93 -10.7 99 1.5 1.4 -3.2 | 78.9 32.6 | 16-18 2.0 127 128
Orioles | .485 158 172 101 1.6 104 -6.3 -0.8 -9.2 | 76.1 15.6 | 15-20 9.0 155 196
Angels | .481 155 174 97 -4.8 101 -1.6 -1.2 -11.1 | 73.7 9.0 | 13-23 6.0 158 179
Rays | .472 138 165 89 -16.8 103 -4.6 2.2 -8.1 | 82.1 56.4 | 22-12 1.5 152 141
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National League
Team | TAL xRF xRA HIT+ hRV PIT- pRV BsR Def | xW PO% | W-L GB RF RA
Dodgers | .554 195 140 125 39.2 96 6.3 -1.3 10.4 | 92.3 94.5 | 22-13 -- 183 115
Braves | .549 194 144 120 32.3 96 6.5 0.4 10.9 | 94.0 97.7 | 25-11 -- 209 129
Cubs | .532 174 142 111 17.2 99 1.6 -0.1 13.5 | 89.9 87.5 | 23-12 -- 190 147
Pirates | .514 167 153 105 7.8 95 7.8 2.1 -3.9 | 83.3 49.1 | 19-16 4.0 180 149
Padres | .514 152 139 99 -1.5 96 6.1 1.4 7.3 | 85.1 63.7 | 20-14 1.5 147 149
Cardinals | .507 171 163 107 11.0 110 -15.7 2.9 9.2 | 84.7 61.2 | 21-14 2.0 172 169
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Brewers | .507 153 146 98 -3.0 95 7.6 3.3 -1.0 | 81.9 37.7 | 18-16 4.5 175 133
Reds | .496 170 174 107 11.0 110 -15.7 2.2 -1.3 | 81.9 36.0 | 20-15 3.0 145 168
Phillies | .494 145 151 93 -11.0 95 7.8 -0.4 -2.4 | 77.2 13.2 | 15-20 9.5 132 174
Mets | .494 143 149 93 -11.0 95 7.8 -2.6 -0.3 | 74.9 6.1 | 13-22 11.5 122 151
Marlins | .492 145 153 90 -15.7 97 4.7 4.2 -1.3 | 78.2 16.8 | 16-19 8.5 146 148
Nationals | .484 161 177 101 1.6 110 -15.7 2.6 -4.9 | 77.4 13.8 | 16-19 8.5 180 197
Giants | .478 124 146 82 -28.2 98 3.1 -4.2 8.0 | 74.1 5.3 | 14-21 8.0 109 142
Diamondbacks | .478 137 158 91 -13.3 108 -11.8 2.2 1.3 | 77.5 13.6 | 16-17 5.0 150 181
Rockies | .476 151 176 95 -8.1 107 -11.3 -2.1 -3.2 | 73.7 3.8 | 14-22 8.5 152 176
American League
Team | W-L GB PO% | TAL AV | Mx Mn | RW RL Div WC
Athletics | 18-16 -- 54.5 |.500 82.0 | 106 56 | 64.0 64.0 38.9 15.6
Mariners | 17-19 2.0 37.2 |.500 80.0 | 103 59 | 63.0 63.0 21.0 16.2
Rangers | 16-18 2.0 38.3 |.500 80.0 | 104 56 | 64.0 64.0 22.3 16.0
Astros | 14-22 5.0 18.9 |.500 77.0 | 102 52 | 63.0 63.0 9.3 9.6
Angels | 13-23 6.0 16.2 |.500 76.0 | 102 52 | 63.0 63.0 8.5 7.7
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Tigers | 18-18 -- 43.5 |.500 81.0 | 104 56 | 63.0 63.0 23.3 20.2
Guardians | 18-18 -- 45.3 |.500 81.0 | 104 58 | 63.0 63.0 25.6 19.7
White Sox | 17-18 0.5 41.3 |.500 80.5 | 107 57 | 63.5 63.5 21.9 19.3
Royals | 16-19 1.5 32.6 |.500 79.5 | 104 55 | 63.5 63.5 15.1 17.4
Twins | 15-20 2.5 29.0 |.500 78.5 | 102 54 | 63.5 63.5 14.0 15.0
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Yankees | 24-11 -- 84.7 |.500 87.5 | 111 63 | 63.5 63.5 47.8 36.9
Rays | 22-12 1.5 78.5 |.500 86.0 | 111 61 | 64.0 64.0 38.0 40.5
Blue Jays | 16-19 8.0 34.3 |.500 79.5 | 109 55 | 63.5 63.5 6.5 27.8
Red Sox | 14-21 10.0 19.5 |.500 77.5 | 104 54 | 63.5 63.5 3.2 16.3
Orioles | 15-20 9.0 26.3 |.500 78.5 | 101 50 | 63.5 63.5 4.4 21.9
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National League
Team | W-L GB PO% | TAL AV | Mx Mn | RW RL Div WC
Dodgers | 22-13 -- 66.4 |.500 85.5 | 107 59 | 63.5 63.5 43.0 23.3
Padres | 20-14 1.5 56.0 |.500 84.0 | 108 60 | 64.0 64.0 33.6 22.4
Diamondbacks | 16-17 5.0 29.0 |.500 80.5 | 104 55 | 64.5 64.5 12.4 16.7
Giants | 14-21 8.0 16.0 |.500 77.5 | 101 54 | 63.5 63.5 6.7 9.3
Rockies | 14-22 8.5 11.9 |.500 77.0 | 106 54 | 63.0 63.0 4.3 7.6
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Cubs | 23-12 -- 70.6 |.500 86.5 | 109 61 | 63.5 63.5 34.9 35.7
Cardinals | 21-14 2.0 59.3 |.500 84.5 | 108 57 | 63.5 63.5 24.4 34.9
Pirates | 19-16 4.0 43.0 |.500 82.5 | 106 58 | 63.5 63.5 13.8 29.2
Brewers | 18-16 4.5 38.5 |.500 82.0 | 108 58 | 64.0 64.0 11.2 27.3
Reds | 20-15 3.0 47.5 |.500 83.5 | 107 61 | 63.5 63.5 15.7 31.7
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Braves | 25-11 -- 82.6 |.500 88.0 | 111 66 | 63.0 63.0 70.4 12.3
Marlins | 16-19 8.5 24.4 |.500 79.5 | 105 54 | 63.5 63.5 9.3 15.1
Nationals | 16-19 8.5 24.6 |.500 79.5 | 104 55 | 63.5 63.5 9.4 15.2
Phillies | 15-20 9.5 19.6 |.500 78.5 | 102 55 | 63.5 63.5 7.2 12.4
Mets | 13-22 11.5 10.6 |.500 76.5 | 100 53 | 63.5 63.5 3.7 6.9
Methodology:
1. Team talent estimated using xwOBA+, xwOBA-, baserunning run value, and fielding run value
- xwOBA+ = (team batting xwOBA / league avg) x 100 [100 = avg, higher is better]
- xwOBA- = (team pitching xwOBA allowed / league avg) x 100 [100 = avg, lower is better]
- Input files sourced from mlbRepo season exports
2. Talent regressed toward mean using historical variance
3. Remaining games simulated using Log5 formula
4. Process repeated 100,000+ times to generate probabilities
Coin Flip tab shows luck-based baseline (all teams = .500)