Estimated talent playoff odds
American League
Team | W-L GB PO% | TAL AV | Mx Mn | RW RL Div WC
Astros | 77-76 -- 76.3 |.481 81.4 | 86 77 | 4.4 4.6 73.1 3.2
Rangers | 76-77 1.0 38.1 |.486 80.6 | 85 76 | 4.6 4.4 26.8 11.2
Mariners | 71-82 6.0 0.1 |.479 75.8 | 80 71 | 4.8 4.2 0.1 0.0
Athletics | 61-92 16.0 0.0 |.456 65.4 | 70 61 | 4.4 4.6 0.0 0.0
Angels | 59-94 18.0 0.0 |.449 63.2 | 68 59 | 4.2 4.8 0.0 0.0
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White Sox | 78-75 -- 87.1 |.502 82.8 | 87 78 | 4.8 4.2 66.5 20.7
Guardians | 78-75 -- 69.4 |.489 82.4 | 87 78 | 4.4 4.6 33.5 35.9
Tigers | 72-81 6.0 0.1 |.513 76.7 | 81 72 | 4.7 4.3 0.0 0.0
Twins | 71-82 7.0 0.0 |.472 75.4 | 80 71 | 4.4 4.6 0.0 0.0
Royals | 67-86 11.0 0.0 |.490 71.6 | 76 67 | 4.6 4.4 0.0 0.0
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Rays | 93-59 -- 100.0 |.487 97.5 | 103 93 | 4.5 5.5 96.0 4.0
Yankees | 88-64 5.0 100.0 |.534 93.5 | 98 88 | 5.5 4.5 4.0 96.0
Red Sox | 83-70 10.5 100.0 |.512 87.7 | 92 83 | 4.7 4.3 0.0 100.0
Blue Jays | 76-77 17.5 21.6 |.490 80.4 | 85 76 | 4.4 4.6 0.0 21.6
Orioles | 75-78 18.5 7.4 |.507 79.5 | 84 75 | 4.5 4.5 0.0 7.4
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National League
Team | W-L GB PO% | TAL AV | Mx Mn | RW RL Div WC
Dodgers | 93-60 -- 100.0 |.572 98.3 | 102 93 | 5.3 3.7 100.0 0.0
Padres | 84-69 9.0 94.4 |.532 88.7 | 93 84 | 4.7 4.3 0.0 94.4
Diamondbacks | 80-73 13.0 6.2 |.499 84.3 | 89 80 | 4.3 4.7 0.0 6.2
Giants | 64-89 29.0 0.0 |.478 68.1 | 73 64 | 4.1 4.9 0.0 0.0
Rockies | 56-97 37.0 0.0 |.443 60.2 | 65 56 | 4.2 4.8 0.0 0.0
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Brewers | 95-58 -- 100.0 |.547 99.7 | 104 95 | 4.7 4.3 100.0 0.0
Cubs | 85-68 10.0 99.9 |.538 89.8 | 94 85 | 4.8 4.2 0.0 99.9
Pirates | 76-77 19.0 0.0 |.498 80.5 | 85 76 | 4.5 4.5 0.0 0.0
Cardinals | 75-78 20.0 0.0 |.518 79.4 | 84 75 | 4.4 4.6 0.0 0.0
Reds | 71-82 24.0 0.0 |.469 75.0 | 80 71 | 4.0 5.0 0.0 0.0
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Braves | 89-64 -- 100.0 |.510 93.6 | 98 89 | 4.6 4.4 98.4 1.6
Phillies | 85-68 4.0 99.4 |.524 89.7 | 94 85 | 4.7 4.3 1.6 97.8
Marlins | 76-77 13.0 0.0 |.492 80.1 | 85 76 | 4.1 4.9 0.0 0.0
Nationals | 71-82 18.0 0.0 |.498 75.2 | 80 71 | 4.2 4.8 0.0 0.0
Mets | 69-84 20.0 0.0 |.511 73.5 | 78 69 | 4.5 4.5 0.0 0.0
Talent-based postseason advancement odds
American League
Team | W-L GB Make DS LCS WS Champ
Astros | 77-76 -- 76.3 50.1 23.5 10.0 3.4
Rangers | 76-77 1.0 38.1 21.5 10.2 4.5 1.6
Mariners | 71-82 6.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Athletics | 61-92 16.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Angels | 59-94 18.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
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White Sox | 78-75 -- 87.1 69.5 37.4 17.7 6.9
Guardians | 78-75 -- 69.4 45.6 22.5 10.0 3.6
Tigers | 72-81 6.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Twins | 71-82 7.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Royals | 67-86 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
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Rays | 93-59 -- 100.0 98.0 43.5 21.8 8.1
Yankees | 88-64 5.0 100.0 61.1 34.9 21.0 9.8
Red Sox | 83-70 10.5 100.0 40.8 21.7 12.0 4.8
Blue Jays | 76-77 17.5 21.6 9.7 4.6 2.0 0.8
Orioles | 75-78 18.5 7.4 3.5 1.8 0.9 0.4
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National League
Team | W-L GB Make DS LCS WS Champ
Dodgers | 93-60 -- 100.0 99.1 60.1 34.7 22.9
Padres | 84-69 9.0 94.4 44.9 19.6 8.9 5.0
Diamondbacks | 80-73 13.0 6.2 2.6 0.9 0.3 0.2
Giants | 64-89 29.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Rockies | 56-97 37.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
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Brewers | 95-58 -- 100.0 100.0 54.8 27.1 16.5
Cubs | 85-68 10.0 99.9 52.5 23.8 11.3 6.5
Pirates | 76-77 19.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Cardinals | 75-78 20.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Reds | 71-82 24.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
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Braves | 89-64 -- 100.0 54.2 20.8 9.0 4.7
Phillies | 85-68 4.0 99.4 46.7 19.9 8.7 4.8
Marlins | 76-77 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Nationals | 71-82 18.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Mets | 69-84 20.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
American League
Team | TAL xRF xRA HIT+ hRV PIT- pRV BsR Def | xW PO% | W-L GB RF RA
Yankees | .534 700 629 103 20.5 94 40.9 -3.2 12.9 | 93.5 100.0 | 88-64 5.0 697 561
Tigers | .513 700 672 102 13.7 96 27.5 -1.1 -12.6 | 76.7 0.1 | 72-81 6.0 684 610
Red Sox | .512 662 638 97 -20.6 96 27.5 -4.8 21.9 | 87.7 100.0 | 83-70 10.5 672 589
Orioles | .507 711 696 104 27.5 99 6.9 -3.7 -15.5 | 79.5 7.4 | 75-78 18.5 688 714
White Sox | .502 692 687 101 6.9 101 -6.9 -2.1 6.6 | 82.8 87.1 | 78-75 -- 714 678
Blue Jays | .490 601 621 88 -82.4 97 20.6 -3.5 45.3 | 80.4 21.6 | 76-77 17.5 619 656
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Royals | .490 677 699 98 -13.7 104 -27.5 3.6 15.4 | 71.6 0.0 | 67-86 11.0 643 740
Guardians | .489 632 655 92 -55.0 97 20.6 -0.2 11.4 | 82.4 69.4 | 78-75 -- 631 638
Rays | .487 638 665 93 -47.8 99 6.8 3.2 11.0 | 97.5 100.0 | 93-59 -- 698 618
Rangers | .486 652 680 95 -34.3 99 6.9 -1.1 -0.3 | 80.6 38.1 | 76-77 1.0 638 677
Astros | .481 652 693 96 -27.5 100 0.0 -7.2 -6.3 | 81.4 76.3 | 77-76 -- 681 731
Mariners | .479 679 724 99 -6.9 98 13.7 -1.4 -50.9 | 75.8 0.1 | 71-82 6.0 624 680
Twins | .472 663 722 97 -20.6 101 -6.9 -2.9 -28.6 | 75.4 0.0 | 71-82 7.0 696 770
Athletics | .456 654 748 96 -27.5 103 -20.6 -5.1 -40.5 | 65.4 0.0 | 61-92 16.0 661 875
Angels | .449 612 719 90 -68.7 100 0.0 -6.7 -31.9 | 63.2 0.0 | 59-94 18.0 619 696
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National League
Team | TAL xRF xRA HIT+ hRV PIT- pRV BsR Def | xW PO% | W-L GB RF RA
Dodgers | .572 787 630 115 103.0 93 48.1 -3.2 8.7 | 98.3 100.0 | 93-60 -- 759 580
Brewers | .547 730 632 105 34.3 92 55.0 8.9 0.4 | 99.7 100.0 | 95-58 -- 792 595
Cubs | .538 728 646 105 34.3 104 -27.5 6.4 68.1 | 89.8 99.9 | 85-68 10.0 817 674
Padres | .532 699 631 102 13.7 97 20.6 -1.7 35.2 | 88.7 94.4 | 84-69 9.0 668 638
Phillies | .524 702 652 101 6.9 93 48.1 8.3 -13.0 | 89.7 99.4 | 85-68 4.0 684 650
Cardinals | .518 714 676 103 20.6 104 -27.5 6.1 38.7 | 79.4 0.0 | 75-78 20.0 693 707
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Mets | .511 696 672 102 13.7 98 13.7 -4.4 1.1 | 73.5 0.0 | 69-84 20.0 650 696
Braves | .510 676 656 99 -6.9 98 13.7 -3.9 17.1 | 93.6 100.0 | 89-64 -- 706 595
Diamondbacks | .499 677 679 97 -20.6 104 -27.5 10.3 35.1 | 84.3 6.2 | 80-73 13.0 678 678
Nationals | .498 733 737 105 34.3 106 -41.2 11.3 -8.5 | 75.2 0.0 | 71-82 18.0 778 775
Pirates | .498 687 692 99 -6.9 98 13.7 7.0 -18.8 | 80.5 0.0 | 76-77 19.0 730 706
Marlins | .492 660 676 95 -34.3 99 6.9 7.0 4.0 | 80.1 0.0 | 76-77 13.0 681 673
Giants | .478 664 710 97 -20.6 101 -6.9 -2.1 -16.5 | 68.1 0.0 | 64-89 29.0 649 719
Reds | .469 680 748 99 -6.9 107 -48.1 0.3 -13.0 | 75.0 0.0 | 71-82 24.0 633 787
Rockies | .443 655 780 95 -34.3 109 -61.8 2.2 -30.9 | 60.2 0.0 | 56-97 37.0 717 894
American League
Team | W-L GB PO% | TAL AV | Mx Mn | RW RL Div WC
Astros | 77-76 -- 79.0 |.500 81.5 | 86 77 | 4.5 4.5 75.8 3.2
Rangers | 76-77 1.0 35.5 |.500 80.5 | 85 76 | 4.5 4.5 24.1 11.4
Mariners | 71-82 6.0 0.1 |.500 75.5 | 80 71 | 4.5 4.5 0.1 0.0
Athletics | 61-92 16.0 0.0 |.500 65.5 | 70 61 | 4.5 4.5 0.0 0.0
Angels | 59-94 18.0 0.0 |.500 63.5 | 68 59 | 4.5 4.5 0.0 0.0
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White Sox | 78-75 -- 82.3 |.500 82.5 | 87 78 | 4.5 4.5 59.2 23.1
Guardians | 78-75 -- 71.6 |.500 82.5 | 87 78 | 4.5 4.5 40.8 30.7
Tigers | 72-81 6.0 0.0 |.500 76.5 | 81 72 | 4.5 4.5 0.0 0.0
Twins | 71-82 7.0 0.0 |.500 75.5 | 80 71 | 4.5 4.5 0.0 0.0
Royals | 67-86 11.0 0.0 |.500 71.5 | 76 67 | 4.5 4.5 0.0 0.0
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Rays | 93-59 -- 100.0 |.500 98.0 | 103 93 | 5.0 5.0 98.4 1.6
Yankees | 88-64 5.0 100.0 |.500 93.0 | 98 88 | 5.0 5.0 1.6 98.4
Red Sox | 83-70 10.5 100.0 |.500 87.5 | 92 83 | 4.5 4.5 0.0 100.0
Blue Jays | 76-77 17.5 23.5 |.500 80.5 | 85 76 | 4.5 4.5 0.0 23.5
Orioles | 75-78 18.5 8.0 |.500 79.5 | 84 75 | 4.5 4.5 0.0 8.0
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National League
Team | W-L GB PO% | TAL AV | Mx Mn | RW RL Div WC
Dodgers | 93-60 -- 100.0 |.500 97.5 | 102 93 | 4.5 4.5 100.0 0.0
Padres | 84-69 9.0 92.4 |.500 88.5 | 93 84 | 4.5 4.5 0.0 92.4
Diamondbacks | 80-73 13.0 8.6 |.500 84.5 | 89 80 | 4.5 4.5 0.0 8.6
Giants | 64-89 29.0 0.0 |.500 68.5 | 73 64 | 4.5 4.5 0.0 0.0
Rockies | 56-97 37.0 0.0 |.500 60.5 | 65 56 | 4.5 4.5 0.0 0.0
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Brewers | 95-58 -- 100.0 |.500 99.5 | 104 95 | 4.5 4.5 100.0 0.0
Cubs | 85-68 10.0 99.8 |.500 89.5 | 94 85 | 4.5 4.5 0.0 99.8
Pirates | 76-77 19.0 0.0 |.500 80.5 | 85 76 | 4.5 4.5 0.0 0.0
Cardinals | 75-78 20.0 0.0 |.500 79.5 | 84 75 | 4.5 4.5 0.0 0.0
Reds | 71-82 24.0 0.0 |.500 75.5 | 80 71 | 4.5 4.5 0.0 0.0
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Braves | 89-64 -- 100.0 |.500 93.5 | 98 89 | 4.5 4.5 98.5 1.5
Phillies | 85-68 4.0 99.1 |.500 89.5 | 94 85 | 4.5 4.5 1.5 97.6
Marlins | 76-77 13.0 0.0 |.500 80.5 | 85 76 | 4.5 4.5 0.0 0.0
Nationals | 71-82 18.0 0.0 |.500 75.5 | 80 71 | 4.5 4.5 0.0 0.0
Mets | 69-84 20.0 0.0 |.500 73.5 | 78 69 | 4.5 4.5 0.0 0.0
Methodology:
1. Team talent estimated using xwOBA+, xwOBA-, baserunning run value, and fielding run value
- xwOBA+ = (team batting xwOBA / league avg) x 100 [100 = avg, higher is better]
- xwOBA- = (team pitching xwOBA allowed / league avg) x 100 [100 = avg, lower is better]
- Input files sourced from mlbRepo season exports
2. Talent regressed toward mean using historical variance
3. Remaining games simulated using Log5 formula
4. Process repeated 100,000+ times to generate probabilities
Coin Flip tab shows luck-based baseline (all teams = .500)