Estimated talent playoff odds
American League
Team | W-L GB PO% | TAL AV | Mx Mn | RW RL Div WC
Mariners | 39-38 -- 61.6 |.503 82.0 | 102 63 | 43.0 42.0 39.7 21.9
Athletics | 38-38 0.5 50.9 |.494 80.8 | 101 63 | 42.8 43.2 27.7 23.2
Rangers | 36-39 2.0 35.2 |.490 79.2 | 100 58 | 43.2 43.8 16.6 18.7
Astros | 36-41 3.0 34.5 |.506 79.1 | 98 58 | 43.1 41.9 15.4 19.1
Angels | 30-47 9.0 1.9 |.477 70.7 | 90 51 | 40.7 44.3 0.7 1.2
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White Sox | 39-35 -- 79.7 |.513 84.3 | 105 61 | 45.3 42.7 58.6 21.1
Guardians | 40-36 -- 63.0 |.486 82.4 | 102 64 | 42.4 43.6 32.9 30.1
Twins | 36-41 4.5 14.8 |.477 76.0 | 96 57 | 40.0 45.0 4.2 10.6
Tigers | 31-44 8.5 10.0 |.506 74.9 | 95 56 | 43.9 43.1 2.6 7.4
Royals | 32-45 8.5 7.2 |.497 74.3 | 94 55 | 42.3 42.7 1.7 5.5
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Yankees | 46-28 -- 99.9 |.559 95.2 | 116 76 | 49.2 38.8 92.5 7.4
Rays | 42-30 3.0 80.1 |.475 84.5 | 105 65 | 42.5 47.5 6.9 73.2
Blue Jays | 37-39 10.0 33.1 |.490 78.8 | 99 61 | 41.8 44.2 0.4 32.8
Orioles | 35-42 12.5 22.9 |.507 77.6 | 95 58 | 42.6 42.4 0.2 22.6
Red Sox | 30-43 15.5 5.2 |.491 73.3 | 92 53 | 43.3 45.7 0.0 5.2
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National League
Team | W-L GB PO% | TAL AV | Mx Mn | RW RL Div WC
Dodgers | 49-27 -- 99.9 |.583 98.9 | 118 81 | 49.9 36.1 99.1 0.8
Padres | 38-36 10.0 28.4 |.506 81.7 | 100 61 | 43.7 44.3 0.5 27.9
Diamondbacks | 39-36 9.5 28.2 |.494 81.3 | 100 63 | 42.3 44.7 0.4 27.8
Giants | 31-44 17.5 0.7 |.477 72.6 | 91 55 | 41.6 45.4 0.0 0.7
Rockies | 29-47 20.0 0.0 |.457 67.9 | 88 47 | 38.9 47.1 0.0 0.0
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Brewers | 45-28 -- 90.9 |.520 90.2 | 109 69 | 45.2 43.8 64.6 26.3
Cardinals | 40-34 5.5 61.7 |.523 85.2 | 105 65 | 45.2 42.8 16.6 45.1
Cubs | 40-36 6.5 57.7 |.533 84.8 | 105 66 | 44.8 41.2 13.9 43.8
Pirates | 38-38 8.5 25.2 |.511 81.0 | 101 62 | 43.0 43.0 4.3 21.0
Reds | 35-39 10.5 6.1 |.492 76.8 | 96 57 | 41.8 46.2 0.6 5.5
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Braves | 47-27 -- 98.3 |.539 93.9 | 113 75 | 46.9 41.1 90.9 7.4
Phillies | 40-35 7.5 41.3 |.508 83.0 | 102 63 | 43.0 44.0 4.3 37.0
Nationals | 39-37 9.0 35.8 |.510 82.4 | 102 64 | 43.4 42.6 3.1 32.7
Marlins | 38-38 10.0 16.5 |.491 79.4 | 99 60 | 41.4 44.6 0.9 15.6
Mets | 34-41 13.5 9.1 |.514 77.8 | 97 57 | 43.8 43.2 0.7 8.4
Talent-based postseason advancement odds
American League
Team | W-L GB Make DS LCS WS Champ
Mariners | 39-38 -- 61.6 40.1 19.4 8.6 3.4
Athletics | 38-38 0.5 50.9 31.0 14.3 6.1 2.3
Rangers | 36-39 2.0 35.2 20.6 9.2 3.8 1.4
Astros | 36-41 3.0 34.5 20.6 9.8 4.5 1.9
Angels | 30-47 9.0 1.9 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1
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White Sox | 39-35 -- 79.7 60.8 31.6 14.5 6.1
Guardians | 40-36 -- 63.0 40.5 18.3 7.4 2.7
Twins | 36-41 4.5 14.8 7.6 3.3 1.3 0.5
Tigers | 31-44 8.5 10.0 5.3 2.5 1.1 0.5
Royals | 32-45 8.5 7.2 3.6 1.6 0.7 0.3
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Yankees | 46-28 -- 99.9 97.0 62.0 39.5 20.7
Rays | 42-30 3.0 80.1 42.4 15.2 6.6 2.3
Blue Jays | 37-39 10.0 33.1 15.7 6.4 2.8 1.1
Orioles | 35-42 12.5 22.9 11.5 5.0 2.4 1.0
Red Sox | 30-43 15.5 5.2 2.4 1.0 0.4 0.2
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National League
Team | W-L GB Make DS LCS WS Champ
Dodgers | 49-27 -- 99.9 97.7 62.0 38.9 24.7
Padres | 38-36 10.0 28.4 13.1 5.2 2.1 1.0
Diamondbacks | 39-36 9.5 28.2 12.5 4.6 1.8 0.8
Giants | 31-44 17.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Rockies | 29-47 20.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
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Brewers | 45-28 -- 90.9 62.5 28.5 12.2 6.2
Cardinals | 40-34 5.5 61.7 33.9 14.6 6.6 3.3
Cubs | 40-36 6.5 57.7 31.9 14.3 6.7 3.5
Pirates | 38-38 8.5 25.2 12.3 5.0 2.1 1.0
Reds | 35-39 10.5 6.1 2.6 0.9 0.3 0.2
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Braves | 47-27 -- 98.3 84.2 45.4 21.2 11.4
Phillies | 40-35 7.5 41.3 20.1 8.1 3.4 1.6
Nationals | 39-37 9.0 35.8 17.4 6.9 2.9 1.4
Marlins | 38-38 10.0 16.5 7.2 2.6 1.0 0.4
Mets | 34-41 13.5 9.1 4.2 1.7 0.7 0.4
American League
Team | TAL xRF xRA HIT+ hRV PIT- pRV BsR Def | xW PO% | W-L GB RF RA
Yankees | .559 389 307 116 53.2 93 23.3 3.8 2.2 | 95.2 99.9 | 46-28 -- 386 263
White Sox | .513 356 338 107 23.3 103 -10.0 0.7 3.9 | 84.3 79.7 | 39-35 -- 348 348
Orioles | .507 370 360 107 24.2 103 -10.4 0.4 -4.0 | 77.6 22.9 | 35-42 12.5 354 391
Tigers | .506 346 337 103 10.1 98 6.7 -1.1 -7.0 | 74.9 10.0 | 31-44 8.5 305 314
Astros | .506 360 352 105 17.3 103 -10.4 -2.7 4.4 | 79.1 34.5 | 36-41 3.0 353 388
Mariners | .503 363 358 106 20.8 98 6.9 -3.7 -19.2 | 82.0 61.6 | 39-38 -- 322 303
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Royals | .497 355 359 102 6.9 105 -17.3 2.1 4.4 | 74.3 7.2 | 32-45 8.5 321 363
Athletics | .494 350 359 103 10.2 101 -3.4 -1.5 -13.7 | 80.8 50.9 | 38-38 0.5 357 402
Red Sox | .491 300 313 91 -29.5 100 0.0 1.8 15.3 | 73.3 5.2 | 30-43 15.5 288 297
Blue Jays | .490 306 319 91 -30.7 97 10.2 -5.1 11.9 | 78.8 33.1 | 37-39 10.0 308 335
Rangers | .490 330 344 98 -6.7 102 -6.7 -0.1 -0.8 | 79.2 35.2 | 36-39 2.0 301 311
Guardians | .486 319 339 94 -20.5 100 0.0 -1.9 2.6 | 82.4 63.0 | 40-36 -- 301 314
Angels | .477 345 378 101 3.5 102 -6.9 -4.1 -25.1 | 70.7 1.9 | 30-47 9.0 345 390
Twins | .477 335 368 97 -10.4 102 -6.9 -0.3 -15.2 | 76.0 14.8 | 36-41 4.5 368 396
Rays | .475 310 345 95 -16.2 103 -9.7 3.2 -11.8 | 84.5 80.1 | 42-30 3.0 320 312
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National League
Team | TAL xRF xRA HIT+ hRV PIT- pRV BsR Def | xW PO% | W-L GB RF RA
Dodgers | .583 422 304 124 81.9 94 20.5 -1.4 17.2 | 98.9 99.9 | 49-27 -- 402 257
Braves | .539 367 313 110 33.2 96 13.3 0.9 6.0 | 93.9 98.3 | 47-27 -- 369 268
Cubs | .533 369 323 107 23.9 104 -13.7 4.1 32.0 | 84.8 57.7 | 40-36 6.5 360 337
Cardinals | .523 372 340 110 33.2 108 -26.6 5.9 19.5 | 85.2 61.7 | 40-34 5.5 337 335
Brewers | .520 338 311 102 6.6 92 26.2 3.3 -9.4 | 90.2 90.9 | 45-28 -- 385 270
Mets | .514 345 327 103 10.1 97 10.1 -1.6 0.2 | 77.8 9.1 | 34-41 13.5 306 321
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Pirates | .511 367 352 106 20.5 98 6.8 5.4 -17.0 | 81.0 25.2 | 38-38 8.5 382 369
Nationals | .510 381 367 110 34.1 109 -30.7 5.9 4.8 | 82.4 35.8 | 39-37 9.0 409 397
Phillies | .508 338 327 99 -3.4 95 16.8 4.2 -6.9 | 83.0 41.3 | 40-35 7.5 308 328
Padres | .506 318 311 95 -16.6 100 0.0 2.2 21.9 | 81.7 28.4 | 38-36 10.0 287 298
Diamondbacks | .494 331 339 97 -10.1 107 -23.6 4.3 21.4 | 81.3 28.2 | 39-36 9.5 321 336
Reds | .492 357 368 107 23.3 110 -33.2 0.9 -2.0 | 76.8 6.1 | 35-39 10.5 311 368
Marlins | .491 324 336 93 -23.9 98 6.8 6.1 -1.3 | 79.4 16.5 | 38-38 10.0 328 332
Giants | .477 314 346 95 -16.8 102 -6.7 -6.0 -1.9 | 72.6 0.7 | 31-44 17.5 313 363
Rockies | .457 327 387 96 -13.7 111 -37.6 -1.0 -8.3 | 67.9 0.0 | 29-47 20.0 348 437
American League
Team | W-L GB PO% | TAL AV | Mx Mn | RW RL Div WC
Mariners | 39-38 -- 54.3 |.500 81.5 | 103 61 | 42.5 42.5 35.2 19.0
Athletics | 38-38 0.5 50.2 |.500 81.0 | 102 61 | 43.0 43.0 30.8 19.4
Rangers | 36-39 2.0 35.3 |.500 79.5 | 100 60 | 43.5 43.5 19.0 16.3
Astros | 36-41 3.0 27.6 |.500 78.5 | 98 58 | 42.5 42.5 13.4 14.2
Angels | 30-47 9.0 3.7 |.500 72.5 | 95 52 | 42.5 42.5 1.6 2.1
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White Sox | 39-35 -- 68.1 |.500 83.0 | 102 63 | 44.0 44.0 45.1 23.0
Guardians | 40-36 -- 64.9 |.500 83.0 | 104 63 | 43.0 43.0 39.7 25.2
Twins | 36-41 4.5 27.9 |.500 78.5 | 97 57 | 42.5 42.5 11.0 16.8
Tigers | 31-44 8.5 7.3 |.500 74.5 | 95 54 | 43.5 43.5 2.1 5.1
Royals | 32-45 8.5 6.9 |.500 74.5 | 93 52 | 42.5 42.5 2.0 4.9
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Yankees | 46-28 -- 97.3 |.500 90.0 | 113 67 | 44.0 44.0 61.8 35.4
Rays | 42-30 3.0 89.8 |.500 87.0 | 107 68 | 45.0 45.0 34.5 55.4
Blue Jays | 37-39 10.0 39.9 |.500 80.0 | 100 60 | 43.0 43.0 2.7 37.2
Orioles | 35-42 12.5 19.8 |.500 77.5 | 96 57 | 42.5 42.5 0.8 19.0
Red Sox | 30-43 15.5 7.2 |.500 74.5 | 95 54 | 44.5 44.5 0.2 7.0
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National League
Team | W-L GB PO% | TAL AV | Mx Mn | RW RL Div WC
Dodgers | 49-27 -- 96.4 |.500 92.0 | 112 72 | 43.0 43.0 87.8 8.6
Padres | 38-36 10.0 31.8 |.500 82.0 | 102 62 | 44.0 44.0 5.6 26.2
Diamondbacks | 39-36 9.5 38.1 |.500 82.5 | 102 62 | 43.5 43.5 6.3 31.8
Giants | 31-44 17.5 2.1 |.500 74.5 | 95 55 | 43.5 43.5 0.3 1.9
Rockies | 29-47 20.0 0.5 |.500 72.0 | 92 54 | 43.0 43.0 0.0 0.4
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Brewers | 45-28 -- 88.9 |.500 89.5 | 109 70 | 44.5 44.5 66.7 22.2
Cardinals | 40-34 5.5 51.9 |.500 84.0 | 106 63 | 44.0 44.0 14.7 37.2
Cubs | 40-36 6.5 42.6 |.500 83.0 | 105 63 | 43.0 43.0 10.3 32.4
Pirates | 38-38 8.5 25.8 |.500 81.0 | 100 60 | 43.0 43.0 6.0 19.7
Reds | 35-39 10.5 13.6 |.500 79.0 | 100 58 | 44.0 44.0 2.4 11.2
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Braves | 47-27 -- 94.0 |.500 91.0 | 111 70 | 44.0 44.0 79.1 14.9
Phillies | 40-35 7.5 45.8 |.500 83.5 | 104 64 | 43.5 43.5 10.1 35.7
Nationals | 39-37 9.0 33.6 |.500 82.0 | 102 62 | 43.0 43.0 5.6 28.0
Marlins | 38-38 10.0 26.5 |.500 81.0 | 101 62 | 43.0 43.0 3.9 22.6
Mets | 34-41 13.5 8.5 |.500 77.5 | 98 58 | 43.5 43.5 1.4 7.1
Methodology:
1. Team talent estimated using xwOBA+, xwOBA-, baserunning run value, and fielding run value
- xwOBA+ = (team batting xwOBA / league avg) x 100 [100 = avg, higher is better]
- xwOBA- = (team pitching xwOBA allowed / league avg) x 100 [100 = avg, lower is better]
- Input files sourced from mlbRepo season exports
2. Talent regressed toward mean using historical variance
3. Remaining games simulated using Log5 formula
4. Process repeated 100,000+ times to generate probabilities
Coin Flip tab shows luck-based baseline (all teams = .500)