Estimated talent playoff odds
American League
Team | W-L GB PO% | TAL AV | Mx Mn | RW RL Div WC
Astros | 81-81 -- 100.0 |.482 81.0 | 81 81 | 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0
Rangers | 80-82 1.0 0.0 |.485 80.0 | 80 80 | 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Mariners | 76-86 5.0 0.0 |.477 76.0 | 76 76 | 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Athletics | 64-98 17.0 0.0 |.452 64.0 | 64 64 | 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Angels | 62-100 19.0 0.0 |.448 62.0 | 62 62 | 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
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Guardians | 85-77 -- 100.0 |.493 85.0 | 85 85 | 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0
White Sox | 84-78 1.0 100.0 |.505 84.0 | 84 84 | 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
Twins | 77-85 8.0 0.0 |.477 77.0 | 77 77 | 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tigers | 76-86 9.0 0.0 |.515 76.0 | 76 76 | 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Royals | 69-93 16.0 0.0 |.488 69.0 | 69 69 | 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
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Rays | 98-64 -- 100.0 |.486 98.0 | 98 98 | 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0
Yankees | 93-68 4.5 100.0 |.528 93.0 | 93 94 | 0.0 1.0 0.0 100.0
Red Sox | 87-75 11.0 100.0 |.510 87.0 | 87 87 | 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
Orioles | 79-82 18.5 0.0 |.512 79.0 | 79 80 | 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0
Blue Jays | 79-83 19.0 0.0 |.489 79.0 | 79 79 | 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
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National League
Team | W-L GB PO% | TAL AV | Mx Mn | RW RL Div WC
Dodgers |100-62 -- 100.0 |.576 100.0 | 100 100 | 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0
Padres | 91-71 9.0 100.0 |.528 91.0 | 91 91 | 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
Diamondbacks | 86-76 14.0 0.0 |.504 86.0 | 86 86 | 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Giants | 65-97 35.0 0.0 |.468 65.0 | 65 65 | 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Rockies | 58-104 42.0 0.0 |.439 58.0 | 58 58 | 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
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Brewers |103-59 -- 100.0 |.541 103.0 | 103 103 | 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0
Cubs | 89-73 14.0 100.0 |.543 89.0 | 89 89 | 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
Pirates | 82-80 21.0 0.0 |.504 82.0 | 82 82 | 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Cardinals | 77-85 26.0 0.0 |.516 77.0 | 77 77 | 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Reds | 75-87 28.0 0.0 |.465 75.0 | 75 75 | 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
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Braves | 94-68 -- 100.0 |.511 94.0 | 94 94 | 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0
Phillies | 88-74 6.0 100.0 |.523 88.0 | 88 88 | 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
Marlins | 80-82 14.0 0.0 |.496 80.0 | 80 80 | 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Nationals | 77-85 17.0 0.0 |.499 77.0 | 77 77 | 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Mets | 74-88 20.0 0.0 |.518 74.0 | 74 74 | 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Talent-based postseason advancement odds
American League
Team | W-L GB Make DS LCS WS Champ
Astros | 81-81 -- 100.0 52.7 24.6 10.8 3.9
Rangers | 80-82 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Mariners | 76-86 5.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Athletics | 64-98 17.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Angels | 62-100 19.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
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Guardians | 85-77 -- 100.0 100.0 51.5 23.8 8.7
White Sox | 84-78 1.0 100.0 47.3 23.9 11.6 4.6
Twins | 77-85 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tigers | 76-86 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Royals | 69-93 16.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
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Rays | 98-64 -- 100.0 100.0 45.3 22.5 8.3
Yankees | 93-68 4.5 100.0 58.7 32.9 19.3 8.8
Red Sox | 87-75 11.0 100.0 41.3 21.9 11.9 4.9
Orioles | 79-82 18.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Blue Jays | 79-83 19.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
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National League
Team | W-L GB Make DS LCS WS Champ
Dodgers |100-62 -- 100.0 100.0 62.5 36.5 24.5
Padres | 91-71 9.0 100.0 53.8 24.8 10.7 5.9
Diamondbacks | 86-76 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Giants | 65-97 35.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Rockies | 58-104 42.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
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Brewers |103-59 -- 100.0 100.0 52.6 25.3 15.0
Cubs | 89-73 14.0 100.0 46.2 22.6 10.6 6.3
Pirates | 82-80 21.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Cardinals | 77-85 26.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Reds | 75-87 28.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
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Braves | 94-68 -- 100.0 54.4 19.9 8.9 4.7
Phillies | 88-74 6.0 100.0 45.6 17.6 8.0 4.4
Marlins | 80-82 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Nationals | 77-85 17.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Mets | 74-88 20.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
American League
Team | TAL xRF xRA HIT+ hRV PIT- pRV BsR Def | xW PO% | W-L GB RF RA
Yankees | .528 732 671 102 14.4 94 43.3 -3.4 7.3 | 93.0 100.0 | 93-68 4.5 739 601
Tigers | .515 743 710 103 21.8 96 29.0 -4.4 -13.0 | 76.0 0.0 | 76-86 9.0 723 652
Orioles | .512 746 721 104 28.9 98 14.4 -3.9 -13.9 | 79.0 0.0 | 79-82 18.5 718 739
Red Sox | .510 685 665 95 -36.3 95 36.3 -4.2 24.6 | 87.0 100.0 | 87-75 11.0 689 611
White Sox | .505 733 722 101 7.3 101 -7.3 -0.4 11.4 | 84.0 100.0 | 84-78 1.0 776 720
Guardians | .493 675 690 93 -50.8 97 21.8 -0.1 14.3 | 85.0 100.0 | 85-77 -- 678 667
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Blue Jays | .489 636 660 88 -87.1 97 21.8 -2.7 44.1 | 79.0 0.0 | 79-83 19.0 648 694
Royals | .488 723 749 99 -7.3 105 -36.3 4.4 12.8 | 69.0 0.0 | 69-93 16.0 690 810
Rays | .486 672 702 92 -58.1 98 14.5 3.9 9.7 | 98.0 100.0 | 98-64 -- 736 650
Rangers | .485 688 720 95 -36.3 99 7.3 -1.6 -1.4 | 80.0 0.0 | 80-82 1.0 673 719
Astros | .482 695 735 97 -21.8 100 0.0 -8.7 -8.6 | 81.0 100.0 | 81-81 -- 734 766
Twins | .477 702 752 97 -21.8 100 0.0 -2.3 -26.4 | 77.0 0.0 | 77-85 8.0 739 797
Mariners | .477 717 770 99 -7.3 98 14.5 -1.2 -58.5 | 76.0 0.0 | 76-86 5.0 664 722
Athletics | .452 684 791 95 -36.3 103 -21.8 -5.6 -43.2 | 64.0 0.0 | 64-98 17.0 699 937
Angels | .448 655 768 91 -65.3 100 0.0 -5.5 -42.4 | 62.0 0.0 | 62-100 19.0 655 752
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National League
Team | TAL xRF xRA HIT+ hRV PIT- pRV BsR Def | xW PO% | W-L GB RF RA
Dodgers | .576 830 658 115 108.9 92 58.1 -5.1 9.5 | 100.0 100.0 |100-62 -- 801 600
Cubs | .543 769 675 105 36.3 103 -21.8 6.4 73.2 | 89.0 100.0 | 89-73 14.0 850 703
Brewers | .541 757 668 103 21.8 93 50.8 8.9 7.3 | 103.0 100.0 |103-59 -- 832 618
Padres | .528 734 674 101 7.3 98 14.5 0.7 37.9 | 91.0 100.0 | 91-71 9.0 722 681
Phillies | .523 742 692 101 7.3 93 50.8 9.2 -16.4 | 88.0 100.0 | 88-74 6.0 713 698
Mets | .518 744 705 103 21.8 97 21.8 -4.1 -0.6 | 74.0 0.0 | 74-88 20.0 699 731
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Cardinals | .516 746 711 102 14.5 104 -29.0 5.3 44.3 | 77.0 0.0 | 77-85 26.0 720 749
Braves | .511 715 691 99 -7.3 98 14.5 -3.9 20.4 | 94.0 100.0 | 94-68 -- 742 626
Diamondbacks | .504 729 720 99 -7.3 104 -29.0 10.2 35.3 | 86.0 0.0 | 86-76 14.0 739 730
Pirates | .504 733 725 100 0.0 97 21.8 7.3 -21.3 | 82.0 0.0 | 82-80 21.0 767 739
Nationals | .499 775 777 105 36.3 106 -43.6 13.1 -7.8 | 77.0 0.0 | 77-85 17.0 821 815
Marlins | .496 697 707 95 -36.3 98 14.5 7.4 4.8 | 80.0 0.0 | 80-82 14.0 715 712
Giants | .468 679 751 94 -43.6 101 -7.3 -2.9 -17.4 | 65.0 0.0 | 65-97 35.0 669 760
Reds | .465 714 792 98 -14.5 107 -50.8 2.3 -14.8 | 75.0 0.0 | 75-87 28.0 666 826
Rockies | .439 693 830 95 -36.3 109 -65.3 2.9 -38.7 | 58.0 0.0 | 58-104 42.0 752 944
American League
Team | W-L GB PO% | TAL AV | Mx Mn | RW RL Div WC
Astros | 81-81 -- 100.0 |.500 81.0 | 81 81 | 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0
Rangers | 80-82 1.0 0.0 |.500 80.0 | 80 80 | 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Mariners | 76-86 5.0 0.0 |.500 76.0 | 76 76 | 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Athletics | 64-98 17.0 0.0 |.500 64.0 | 64 64 | 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Angels | 62-100 19.0 0.0 |.500 62.0 | 62 62 | 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
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Guardians | 85-77 -- 100.0 |.500 85.0 | 85 85 | 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0
White Sox | 84-78 1.0 100.0 |.500 84.0 | 84 84 | 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
Twins | 77-85 8.0 0.0 |.500 77.0 | 77 77 | 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tigers | 76-86 9.0 0.0 |.500 76.0 | 76 76 | 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Royals | 69-93 16.0 0.0 |.500 69.0 | 69 69 | 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
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Rays | 98-64 -- 100.0 |.500 98.0 | 98 98 | 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0
Yankees | 93-68 4.5 100.0 |.500 93.0 | 93 94 | 0.0 1.0 0.0 100.0
Red Sox | 87-75 11.0 100.0 |.500 87.0 | 87 87 | 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
Orioles | 79-82 18.5 0.0 |.500 79.0 | 79 80 | 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0
Blue Jays | 79-83 19.0 0.0 |.500 79.0 | 79 79 | 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
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National League
Team | W-L GB PO% | TAL AV | Mx Mn | RW RL Div WC
Dodgers |100-62 -- 100.0 |.500 100.0 | 100 100 | 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0
Padres | 91-71 9.0 100.0 |.500 91.0 | 91 91 | 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
Diamondbacks | 86-76 14.0 0.0 |.500 86.0 | 86 86 | 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Giants | 65-97 35.0 0.0 |.500 65.0 | 65 65 | 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Rockies | 58-104 42.0 0.0 |.500 58.0 | 58 58 | 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
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Brewers |103-59 -- 100.0 |.500 103.0 | 103 103 | 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0
Cubs | 89-73 14.0 100.0 |.500 89.0 | 89 89 | 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
Pirates | 82-80 21.0 0.0 |.500 82.0 | 82 82 | 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Cardinals | 77-85 26.0 0.0 |.500 77.0 | 77 77 | 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Reds | 75-87 28.0 0.0 |.500 75.0 | 75 75 | 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
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Braves | 94-68 -- 100.0 |.500 94.0 | 94 94 | 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0
Phillies | 88-74 6.0 100.0 |.500 88.0 | 88 88 | 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
Marlins | 80-82 14.0 0.0 |.500 80.0 | 80 80 | 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Nationals | 77-85 17.0 0.0 |.500 77.0 | 77 77 | 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Mets | 74-88 20.0 0.0 |.500 74.0 | 74 74 | 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Methodology:
1. Team talent estimated using xwOBA+, xwOBA-, baserunning run value, and fielding run value
- xwOBA+ = (team batting xwOBA / league avg) x 100 [100 = avg, higher is better]
- xwOBA- = (team pitching xwOBA allowed / league avg) x 100 [100 = avg, lower is better]
- Input files sourced from mlbRepo season exports
2. Talent regressed toward mean using historical variance
3. Remaining games simulated using Log5 formula
4. Process repeated 100,000+ times to generate probabilities
Coin Flip tab shows luck-based baseline (all teams = .500)