Estimated talent playoff odds
American League
Team | W-L GB PO% | TAL AV | Mx Mn | RW RL Div WC
Astros | 58-56 -- 61.7 |.495 82.1 | 98 69 | 24.1 23.9 53.9 7.8
Mariners | 55-58 2.5 33.8 |.498 79.9 | 96 65 | 24.9 24.1 27.8 6.0
Rangers | 55-58 2.5 25.5 |.480 79.2 | 94 65 | 24.2 24.8 18.3 7.2
Athletics | 45-67 12.0 0.1 |.467 68.9 | 85 53 | 23.9 26.1 0.1 0.0
Angels | 43-69 14.0 0.0 |.458 66.0 | 81 52 | 23.0 27.0 0.0 0.0
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White Sox | 59-52 -- 83.0 |.509 85.3 | 100 71 | 26.3 24.7 69.7 13.3
Guardians | 57-56 3.0 38.6 |.485 81.2 | 96 66 | 24.2 24.8 15.1 23.6
Tigers | 54-58 5.5 26.6 |.519 80.3 | 94 66 | 26.3 23.7 9.7 16.9
Twins | 56-57 4.0 17.5 |.469 78.9 | 94 65 | 22.9 26.1 5.5 12.0
Royals | 46-67 14.0 0.0 |.473 69.6 | 84 55 | 23.6 25.4 0.0 0.0
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Yankees | 63-50 3.5 98.8 |.536 90.2 | 105 75 | 27.2 21.8 43.0 55.7
Rays | 66-46 -- 98.5 |.481 89.9 | 107 74 | 23.9 26.1 46.2 52.3
Red Sox | 60-51 5.5 88.6 |.506 86.2 | 102 72 | 26.2 24.8 10.5 78.0
Orioles | 54-58 12.0 22.7 |.510 79.7 | 95 61 | 25.7 24.3 0.2 22.5
Blue Jays | 53-60 13.5 4.6 |.477 76.2 | 90 62 | 23.2 25.8 0.0 4.6
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National League
Team | W-L GB PO% | TAL AV | Mx Mn | RW RL Div WC
Dodgers | 69-44 -- 100.0 |.575 97.1 | 111 83 | 28.1 20.9 99.1 0.9
Diamondbacks | 60-53 9.0 52.8 |.496 84.4 | 99 69 | 24.4 24.6 0.7 52.1
Padres | 58-55 11.0 33.7 |.514 83.2 | 97 68 | 25.2 23.8 0.2 33.5
Giants | 48-65 21.0 0.0 |.488 71.9 | 87 57 | 23.9 25.1 0.0 0.0
Rockies | 45-68 24.0 0.0 |.445 66.2 | 81 51 | 21.2 27.8 0.0 0.0
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Brewers | 69-43 -- 99.9 |.540 95.3 | 111 80 | 26.3 23.7 87.5 12.3
Cubs | 64-49 5.5 94.6 |.532 89.7 | 104 74 | 25.7 23.3 12.3 82.2
Cardinals | 56-57 13.5 13.9 |.518 80.9 | 96 65 | 24.9 24.1 0.1 13.8
Pirates | 57-57 13.0 10.2 |.502 80.5 | 95 66 | 23.5 24.5 0.1 10.1
Reds | 53-58 15.5 1.4 |.488 76.8 | 92 62 | 23.8 27.2 0.0 1.4
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Braves | 67-45 -- 98.8 |.519 92.6 | 107 77 | 25.6 24.4 91.8 7.0
Phillies | 60-53 7.5 62.1 |.518 85.4 | 100 70 | 25.4 23.6 6.8 55.4
Marlins | 58-55 9.5 26.2 |.500 82.0 | 97 65 | 24.0 25.0 1.3 24.9
Nationals | 55-59 13.0 6.4 |.507 79.1 | 93 65 | 24.1 23.9 0.1 6.3
Mets | 47-66 20.5 0.0 |.505 71.2 | 88 55 | 24.2 24.8 0.0 0.0
Talent-based postseason advancement odds
American League
Team | W-L GB Make DS LCS WS Champ
Astros | 58-56 -- 61.7 41.2 19.9 9.1 3.5
Mariners | 55-58 2.5 33.8 20.2 9.7 4.5 1.8
Rangers | 55-58 2.5 25.5 14.1 6.3 2.7 1.0
Athletics | 45-67 12.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Angels | 43-69 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
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White Sox | 59-52 -- 83.0 69.6 37.1 18.0 7.5
Guardians | 57-56 3.0 38.6 22.9 10.7 4.6 1.8
Tigers | 54-58 5.5 26.6 16.5 8.7 4.4 1.9
Twins | 56-57 4.0 17.5 9.3 4.1 1.6 0.5
Royals | 46-67 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
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Yankees | 63-50 3.5 98.8 75.2 44.1 26.1 12.4
Rays | 66-46 -- 98.5 71.2 30.3 14.2 5.1
Red Sox | 60-51 5.5 88.6 47.3 23.0 11.9 5.0
Orioles | 54-58 12.0 22.7 10.6 5.2 2.5 1.0
Blue Jays | 53-60 13.5 4.6 1.8 0.8 0.4 0.1
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National League
Team | W-L GB Make DS LCS WS Champ
Dodgers | 69-44 -- 100.0 95.1 58.3 35.3 23.0
Diamondbacks | 60-53 9.0 52.8 22.1 8.5 3.4 1.6
Padres | 58-55 11.0 33.7 14.6 6.1 2.6 1.3
Giants | 48-65 21.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Rockies | 45-68 24.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
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Brewers | 69-43 -- 99.9 86.4 46.1 22.4 13.0
Cubs | 64-49 5.5 94.6 56.1 25.6 12.3 6.9
Cardinals | 56-57 13.5 13.9 6.0 2.5 1.1 0.6
Pirates | 57-57 13.0 10.2 4.2 1.8 0.8 0.4
Reds | 53-58 15.5 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
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Braves | 67-45 -- 98.8 72.2 33.3 14.5 7.7
Phillies | 60-53 7.5 62.1 28.8 12.1 5.4 2.9
Marlins | 58-55 9.5 26.2 11.1 4.4 1.8 0.8
Nationals | 55-59 13.0 6.4 2.7 1.1 0.4 0.2
Mets | 47-66 20.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
American League
Team | TAL xRF xRA HIT+ hRV PIT- pRV BsR Def | xW PO% | W-L GB RF RA
Yankees | .536 529 466 104 20.3 94 30.5 0.8 11.3 | 90.2 98.8 | 63-50 3.5 519 438
Tigers | .519 522 488 104 20.1 95 25.2 -2.1 -10.1 | 80.3 26.6 | 54-58 5.5 505 442
Orioles | .510 529 512 105 25.2 100 0.0 0.1 -8.4 | 79.7 22.7 | 54-58 12.0 507 542
White Sox | .509 509 493 102 10.0 100 0.0 0.3 6.1 | 85.3 83.0 | 59-52 -- 531 476
Red Sox | .506 474 465 95 -25.0 96 20.0 -0.2 14.5 | 86.2 88.6 | 60-51 5.5 474 414
Mariners | .498 521 524 103 15.2 97 15.2 -2.7 -31.1 | 79.9 33.8 | 55-58 2.5 454 451
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Astros | .495 513 521 101 5.1 101 -5.1 -5.1 -3.3 | 82.1 61.7 | 58-56 -- 529 558
Guardians | .485 459 485 90 -50.8 97 15.2 1.4 8.3 | 81.2 38.6 | 57-56 3.0 446 462
Rays | .481 477 509 94 -30.2 101 -5.0 3.8 -0.7 | 89.9 98.5 | 66-46 -- 497 462
Rangers | .480 483 518 95 -25.4 100 0.0 -0.1 -9.9 | 79.2 25.5 | 55-58 2.5 466 506
Blue Jays | .477 431 469 86 -71.1 97 15.2 -5.6 23.4 | 76.2 4.6 | 53-60 13.5 442 498
Royals | .473 493 540 97 -15.2 107 -35.6 -0.2 3.4 | 69.6 0.0 | 46-67 14.0 467 576
Twins | .469 485 540 96 -20.3 101 -5.1 -2.4 -26.8 | 78.9 17.5 | 56-57 4.0 532 561
Athletics | .467 491 549 98 -10.1 103 -15.1 -2.6 -30.5 | 68.9 0.1 | 45-67 12.0 487 641
Angels | .458 473 546 95 -25.2 102 -10.1 -5.0 -32.8 | 66.0 0.0 | 43-69 14.0 470 544
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National League
Team | TAL xRF xRA HIT+ hRV PIT- pRV BsR Def | xW PO% | W-L GB RF RA
Dodgers | .575 597 463 118 91.5 95 25.4 -2.4 19.4 | 97.1 100.0 | 69-44 -- 577 432
Brewers | .540 532 464 104 20.1 91 45.3 8.6 -5.6 | 95.3 99.9 | 69-43 -- 558 424
Cubs | .532 533 477 104 20.3 105 -25.4 4.6 56.0 | 89.7 94.6 | 64-49 5.5 580 486
Braves | .519 519 486 103 15.1 98 10.1 0.8 7.1 | 92.6 98.8 | 67-45 -- 549 441
Phillies | .518 516 484 100 0.0 94 30.5 8.2 -6.9 | 85.4 62.1 | 60-53 7.5 496 497
Cardinals | .518 534 502 104 20.3 104 -20.3 5.2 25.9 | 80.9 13.9 | 56-57 13.5 496 506
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Padres | .514 504 480 99 -5.1 98 10.2 1.4 18.1 | 83.2 33.7 | 58-55 11.0 473 489
Nationals | .507 572 560 110 51.3 108 -41.0 7.8 -6.0 | 79.1 6.4 | 55-59 13.0 610 597
Mets | .505 509 500 101 5.1 97 15.2 -4.4 -7.1 | 71.2 0.0 | 47-66 20.5 457 515
Pirates | .502 524 520 101 5.1 98 10.3 6.5 -17.7 | 80.5 10.2 | 57-57 13.0 582 551
Marlins | .500 495 495 96 -20.3 98 10.2 7.7 2.6 | 82.0 26.2 | 58-55 9.5 496 483
Diamondbacks | .496 503 510 98 -10.2 106 -30.5 5.5 28.6 | 84.4 52.8 | 60-53 9.0 513 507
Reds | .488 516 537 103 15.0 106 -29.9 2.1 -8.0 | 76.8 1.4 | 53-58 15.5 462 525
Giants | .488 485 506 96 -20.3 101 -5.1 -3.1 7.4 | 71.9 0.0 | 48-65 21.0 475 524
Rockies | .445 473 571 94 -30.5 110 -50.8 -4.2 -12.5 | 66.2 0.0 | 45-68 24.0 547 649
American League
Team | W-L GB PO% | TAL AV | Mx Mn | RW RL Div WC
Astros | 58-56 -- 62.4 |.500 82.0 | 96 66 | 24.0 24.0 54.4 8.0
Mariners | 55-58 2.5 30.5 |.500 79.5 | 94 64 | 24.5 24.5 24.7 5.9
Rangers | 55-58 2.5 29.1 |.500 79.5 | 95 65 | 24.5 24.5 20.8 8.3
Athletics | 45-67 12.0 0.2 |.500 70.0 | 85 56 | 25.0 25.0 0.1 0.0
Angels | 43-69 14.0 0.0 |.500 68.0 | 83 52 | 25.0 25.0 0.0 0.0
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White Sox | 59-52 -- 77.5 |.500 84.5 | 100 70 | 25.5 25.5 61.4 16.1
Guardians | 57-56 3.0 42.3 |.500 81.5 | 97 67 | 24.5 24.5 18.8 23.6
Tigers | 54-58 5.5 17.7 |.500 79.0 | 93 64 | 25.0 25.0 6.4 11.3
Twins | 56-57 4.0 34.1 |.500 80.5 | 95 66 | 24.5 24.5 13.4 20.7
Royals | 46-67 14.0 0.1 |.500 70.5 | 87 56 | 24.5 24.5 0.0 0.1
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Yankees | 63-50 3.5 94.0 |.500 87.5 | 103 72 | 24.5 24.5 18.9 75.1
Rays | 66-46 -- 99.4 |.500 91.0 | 107 76 | 25.0 25.0 71.9 27.5
Red Sox | 60-51 5.5 84.8 |.500 85.5 | 101 70 | 25.5 25.5 8.9 75.9
Orioles | 54-58 12.0 18.6 |.500 79.0 | 93 64 | 25.0 25.0 0.2 18.4
Blue Jays | 53-60 13.5 9.1 |.500 77.5 | 94 64 | 24.5 24.5 0.1 9.1
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National League
Team | W-L GB PO% | TAL AV | Mx Mn | RW RL Div WC
Dodgers | 69-44 -- 99.5 |.500 93.5 | 107 77 | 24.5 24.5 94.4 5.1
Diamondbacks | 60-53 9.0 55.6 |.500 84.5 | 99 69 | 24.5 24.5 4.6 51.0
Padres | 58-55 11.0 29.2 |.500 82.5 | 99 66 | 24.5 24.5 1.0 28.2
Giants | 48-65 21.0 0.1 |.500 72.5 | 86 58 | 24.5 24.5 0.0 0.0
Rockies | 45-68 24.0 0.0 |.500 69.5 | 86 55 | 24.5 24.5 0.0 0.0
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Brewers | 69-43 -- 99.7 |.500 94.0 | 108 79 | 25.0 25.0 86.6 13.0
Cubs | 64-49 5.5 90.7 |.500 88.5 | 102 73 | 24.5 24.5 12.9 77.8
Cardinals | 56-57 13.5 13.9 |.500 80.5 | 97 65 | 24.5 24.5 0.1 13.7
Pirates | 57-57 13.0 14.7 |.500 81.0 | 95 66 | 24.0 24.0 0.3 14.4
Reds | 53-58 15.5 4.5 |.500 78.5 | 94 62 | 25.5 25.5 0.0 4.5
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Braves | 67-45 -- 98.4 |.500 92.0 | 108 77 | 25.0 25.0 91.4 7.0
Phillies | 60-53 7.5 53.7 |.500 84.5 | 99 69 | 24.5 24.5 6.1 47.6
Marlins | 58-55 9.5 33.1 |.500 82.5 | 96 69 | 24.5 24.5 2.3 30.8
Nationals | 55-59 13.0 6.9 |.500 79.0 | 94 64 | 24.0 24.0 0.2 6.7
Mets | 47-66 20.5 0.0 |.500 71.5 | 86 58 | 24.5 24.5 0.0 0.0
Methodology:
1. Team talent estimated using xwOBA+, xwOBA-, baserunning run value, and fielding run value
- xwOBA+ = (team batting xwOBA / league avg) x 100 [100 = avg, higher is better]
- xwOBA- = (team pitching xwOBA allowed / league avg) x 100 [100 = avg, lower is better]
- Input files sourced from mlbRepo season exports
2. Talent regressed toward mean using historical variance
3. Remaining games simulated using Log5 formula
4. Process repeated 100,000+ times to generate probabilities
Coin Flip tab shows luck-based baseline (all teams = .500)